The Light of Islam


While the whole world is awaiting for the expected new economic recession 2020 that might lead to a financial crisis such as the 2008 crisis, this research paper addresses the indicators of this recession and its possible causes as well as the damages resulting from its occurrence and which countries are more affected by it, with a try to reach some recommendations to avoid this recession or dealing with it if it’s actually happens.

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1. Insight Report, Regional Risks for Doing Business 2019.

2. https://www.weforum.org/reports/regional-risks-fordoing- business-2019

3. Sher Verick and Iyanatul Islam, The Great Recession of 2008-2009: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses, Discussion Paper Series, Institute for the study of Labor, Germany, May 2010.

4. Dr. Daniel Bachman, United States Economic Forecast: fourth quarter 2019, Deloitte insights, 19 December 2019.

5. World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, July 2019.

6. Ibid.

7. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/19/economy/globalgrowth- recession/index.html

8. slowing growth alongside rising inflation

9. https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/the-risk-of-a-2020- financial-crash-is-growing-20190618

10. Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, the making of a 2020 recession and financial crisis, 14 Sep, 2018. www. ejinsight.com

11. Nouriel Roubini, ibid.

12. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Dec. 5, 2019. www.newyorkfed.org

13. Anne Sraders, next recession warning signs – yield curve confidence manufacturing, July 11, 2019. fortune. com

14. The Consumer Confidence Index is a survey, administered by The Conference Board, that measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation.

15. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It consists of a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding, staying the same, or contracting. The purpose of the PMI is to provide information about current and future business conditions to company decision makers, analysts, and investors.

16. Anne Sraders, American consumers might be about to ‘talk ourselves into a recession’. Here’s How, 26 June 2019. www.fortune.com

17. World Economic Outlook - October 2019, Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers, International Monetary Fund publications.

18. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/12/ business/the-next-recession-financial-crisis.html

19. A leveraged loan is a type of loan that is extended to companies or individuals that already have considerable amounts of debt and/or a poor credit history.

20. Systemic risk is the possibility that an event at the company level could trigger severe instability or collapse an entire industry or economy. Systemic risk was a major contributor to the financial crisis of 2008. Companies considered to be a systemic risk are called “too big to fail.”

21. Brian Cheung, leveraged loan growth sparks concerns next financial crisis, finance.yahoo.com

22. Jerome H. Powell, Business Debt and our Dynamic Financial System, Board of Governers of the Federal Reserve System, Speech, May 20, 2019.

23. Dean Parker, Under Trump, Manufacturing Job Growth Slows to a Trickle, June 24, 2019. www.truthout.org

24. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/compositepmi

25. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/imf-says-trade-warwill- cut-global-growth-to-lowest-since-financial-crisisa- decade-ago.html

26. Sasha Ingber, China’s Economy Falters; Slowest Growth in Nearly 3 Decades, July 15, 2019. www.npr. org

27. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/imf-says-trade-warwill- cut-global-growth-to-lowest-since-financial-crisisa- decade-ago.html

28. Nouriel Roubini, The Risk Of A 2020 Financial Crash Is Growing, 18 June 2019. www.fnlondon.com

29. David Lawder, IMF says trade war cuts global growth to lowest since financial crisis a decade ago, Oct 15, 2019. www.nasdaq.com

30. Leonid Bershidsky, Cash is More Popular Than Ever, 22 October 2019. www.bloomberg.com

31. Nouriel Roubini, ibid.

32. Neil Irwin, How the Recession of 2020 Could Happen, Aug 17, 2019. www.nytimes.com

33. h t t p s : / / w w w . f o r b e s . c o m / s i t e s / lisettevoytko/2019/10/28/hong-kong-enters-technicalrecession- amid-unrelenting-protests/#39a9ddd2cc33

34. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/09/economy/uk-gdpbrexit/ index.html

35. https://www.ft.com/content/11e93dc8-ea15-11e9-a240- 3b065ef5fc55

36. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/19/economy/globalgrowth- recession/index.html

37. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/21/chinas-economicgrowth- could-fall-below-6percent-in-2020-says-theimf. html

38. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/globalrecession- china-germany-uk-italy-japan

39. Robert E. Scott, Manufacturing Job Loss: Trade, No Productivity, is the Culprit, 11 August 2015, Economic Policy Institute, Issue No. 4.

40. Jim Tankersley, Are Trump’s Tariffs Bolstering the U.S. Economy?, May 7, 2019. www.nytimes.com

41. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) was formed as a part of the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act to monitor risks to the US financial sector from the issues of large banks or financial holding companies that could derail the economy.

42. Kristen Haunss, Regulatory crackdown unlikely in the US leveraged loan market, 15 March 2019, www. reuters.com

43. Guy Miller, are we at risk of a financial crisis? A commentary on the World Economic Forum 2019 Report, 1 October 2019. www.weforum.org

44. https://www.vox.com/2019/4/30/18522505/candidatesposition- 15-dollar-minimum-wage